These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points a whopping 19-point swing. The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, historical voting data, and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. Lazaro Gamio You deserve to hear our thinking. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Lauren Leatherby 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. Were getting results for ballot measures related to abortion and reproductive rights in Kentucky, Michigan and Vermont. Florida: Likely to Lean Republican. Web2022 Senate - State Projections. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. In these elections, it was not the unpopularity of the GOP challengers that explained the discrepancies, but Manchins extraordinary popularity as a former governor and relatively conservative Democrat. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. From this video, its very clear that Joe Biden is going to go there. Things have changed in this race since when I first rated it. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. Lazaro Gamio The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, how those places have voted in previous elections and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. Gingrich 2022 Prediction: Senate Will Go +3 to +5 With GOP Pickups in NH, NV, AZ & GA Without Runoff, +44 Seats In House. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. Along with the powerful influence of presidential partisanship, incumbency continues to have a substantial impact on Senate elections, with the average incumbent adding about 8 points of margin to her partys expected vote. While Democrats won 94% of contests in states won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Republicans won only 86% of contests in states won by the Republican presidential candidate. Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. Manage Settings Web1 Predictions. 1.2 Close races. Meanwhile, Republicans are in the hunt in Colorado and Washington State though both are rated Lean Democratic. It would take a larger GOP wave than is currently apparent for Democratic Sens. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. In the current 50-50 Senate, only 6 members represent states that voted for the opposing partys presidential candidate in 2020 3 Democrats (Ohios Sherrod Brown, West Virginias Joe Manchin, and Montanas Jon Tester) and 3 Republicans (Maines Susan Collins, Wisconsins Ron Johnson, and Pennsylvanias Pat Toomey). Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. State officials say that counting all of the votes may take several days. In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Bidens age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 and possibly win big.
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